Salary increase budgets for 2027, publisher by publisher

Published US salary increase budgets for 2027 sit between 3.0% and 3.6%. The lowest figure is Korn Ferry’s median total budget and the highest is WorldatWork’s mean total budget. The gap says more about measurement than about the market, since one survey can give two answers: Mercer reports 3.2% for merit and 3.5% for total. The surveys agree on the neighborhood and disagree about the street number.

This page lines up a set of published 2027 forecasts for eight markets, from the United States to the UAE, with the statistic behind each number. Use it to choose the figure that matches how your own budget is built.

Why one year has several numbers

Each survey makes choices that move its number before the market does.

• Mean or median: WorldatWork’s US total is 3.6% as a mean and 3.5% as a median, while Korn Ferry’s is 3.3% as an average and 3.0% as a median.
• Merit or total: Mercer says its US total of 3.5% includes zero increases in the average. Its newsroom text says the total covers merit increases and other adjustments, promotions among them. The Conference Board reports medians of 3.1% for merit and 3.5% for total, and says the difference is planned for other compensation actions such as retention adjustments or promotions.
• Who answered: samples run from 196 Michigan organizations at ASE to 5,512 organizations in 135 countries at Korn Ferry, and the largest US-only sample stated is WTW’s 1,650 organizations.
• When they asked: WTW’s survey ran from March to May 2026 and Korn Ferry’s in June. Mercer asked in mid-July.

A median total from one publisher and an average merit figure from another are forecasts of different things, so we show the statistic beside each number and never average across publishers.

United States

Most forecasts match or sit just under what employers gave in 2026. Only ASE points slightly up, from about 3.1% to about 3.2%. Gallagher’s 3.3% to 3.4% is a step down from its 2026 actual increases of 3.7% to 3.9%. WTW puts 2026 actual increases at 3.5% against 3.4% planned for 2027. The Conference Board says its 3.5% median total is unchanged from 2026 actual and planned levels. WorldatWork’s 2027 mean and median equal its 2026 actuals of 3.6% and 3.5%. Korn Ferry says most major markets show no change or a slight decrease in projected 2027 total increases. A WTW senior managing director expects increases to stay in the “land of 3%” for the foreseeable future.

We could not find Gallagher’s own report page, so its row rests on the WorldatWork summary of the report.

Outside the United States

Forecasts outside the US are thinner, and most come from two global surveys. Mercer covers Canada. Aon covers Singapore and India. Brightmine covers the UK.

UK forecasts span 3.0% to 3.7% depending on the survey and the statistic, and we do not pick one because the populations and definitions differ. Brightmine’s figure covers the year to August 31, 2027, and its September report found 71% of predicted pay awards between 3% and 4%. CIPD reports a 3% median expected pay award for the next 12 months, but its page does not label it 2027, so it is not in the table.

Korn Ferry’s country figures come from the WorldatWork Workspan Daily article on its report, because Korn Ferry’s own page gives none. Aon does not say whether its Singapore and India numbers are means or medians. WorldatWork’s toplines do not list the UAE on its own, so the UAE row is Korn Ferry’s and the GCC row is an aggregate.

India’s forecasts sit near 9%, at 9.1% for Aon and 9.2% for the WorldatWork mean, while US forecasts run from 3.0% to 3.6%. A global budget needs a separate line for each market, because a single blended percentage would hide that difference.

What has not been published yet

WorldatWork’s Fall Update to its Salary Budget Survey closes to member responses on October 30, 2026, and its page gives no date for results. Until results appear, read WorldatWork’s figures as the July 15 edition. Mercer says its October 2026 survey will capture plans closer to final, and gives no results date. Brightmine’s pages name no next-report date.

Turning the forecasts into your number

Pick one statistic and stay with it. If your budget is a total pool, compare it with total budgets, and compare your merit pool only with merit figures. We would start from the median total budget for your market and then check the merit pool against merit-only figures, because a total that includes promotions overstates what is left for annual merit.

Take a hypothetical payroll of $8,000,000. At Mercer’s averages, a 3.2% merit budget costs $256,000 and a 3.5% total budget costs $280,000. That leaves about $24,000 for promotions and other adjustments, give or take how each average treats zero increases. With the Conference Board’s medians of 3.1% and 3.5%, the equivalent gap is $32,000. Each 0.1 point is $8,000 on this payroll.

Put your chosen figures into the HR budget template, then spread the merit pool across grades and ratings with the merit increase matrix. The benefit and payroll limits that also reset in January are in US payroll tax and benefit limits for 2027. For the wider picture, read compensation and benefits trends for 2027.

Written and reviewed by the HR Riant Editorial Team. General information, not legal advice.